Supply and Demand Drive Record Foreign Trade High
On October 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, introduced: "Since the beginning of this ye...
On October 14th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, introduced: "Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has been operating overall steadily and making progress, with new quality productive forces accelerating the formation, high-quality development being deeply promoted, and the stable growth of goods import and export, with the continuous optimization of foreign trade structure." In the first three quarters, the total value of China's goods trade import and export was 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, exports were 18.62 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.2%; imports were 13.71 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.1%.
First, second, and third quarters' import and export all exceeded 10 trillion yuan
Wang Lingjun said that this year, China's total import and export value has set a new high, with the first three quarters of the historical period breaking through 32 trillion yuan for the first time, with each quarter being 10.15 trillion, 11 trillion, and 11.17 trillion yuan, respectively, all exceeding 10 trillion yuan, which is also the first time in the historical period. This year, there are several aspects of import and export worth paying attention to.
All types of business entities remain active. Private enterprises have achieved rapid growth, with private enterprises' import and export reaching 17.78 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a growth of 9.4%, accounting for 55% of the total foreign trade value, and increasing by 2.1 percentage points; foreign-invested enterprises' import and export reached 9.53 trillion yuan, a growth of 1.1%, and have grown for two consecutive quarters.
Market diversification is steadily advancing. In the first three quarters, China's import and export to countries participating in the "Belt and Road" initiative reached 15.21 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.3%, and the proportion increased to 47.1%; import and export to other member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) reached 9.63 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.5%, among which import and export to ASEAN reached 5.09 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.4%. This year, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has expanded. After the expansion, the BRICS countries' share of global trade has exceeded 1/5, and their international influence has further expanded. In the first three quarters, China's import and export to other BRICS countries reached 4.62 trillion yuan, a growth of 5.1%. In the industrial field, China and other BRICS countries have fully utilized their comparative advantages in intermediate products, achieving complementarity in basic industrial fields such as steel, chemical industry, and textiles. In the agricultural field, the advantageous agricultural products of China and other BRICS countries have met each other's diversified needs, and the trade of agricultural machinery and agricultural materials has been frequent.
The export product structure is optimized. In the first three quarters, the export of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.03 trillion yuan, a growth of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of the total export value. Among them, the export of high-end equipment grew by 43.4%, and the export of integrated circuits, automobiles, and household appliances grew by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.
Both supply and demand drive China's import and export to maintain stable growth
Wang Lingjun said that since the beginning of this year, China's import and export have been able to maintain stable growth, which depends on both supply and demand.
In terms of demand, internationally, the latest WTO report has raised the forecast for the growth rate of goods trade volume for the whole year. Institutions such as the World Bank and the OECD believe that the global economy is stabilizing, and the recovery of external demand has created favorable conditions for China's exports. In the first three quarters, China's exports to traditional markets such as Europe, the United States, and Japan grew by 4.2%, and exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America grew by 12.3% and 13.7%, respectively. Domestically, since the beginning of this year, China's industrial production has been growing steadily, driving the import volume of coal, natural gas, and iron ore sand to increase by 11.9%, 13%, and 4.9%, respectively, in the first three quarters. With the cyclical upward trend of the consumer electronics industry, the import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, integrated circuits, and flat panel display modules has all achieved double-digit growth. The consumer market continues to grow steadily, with the import of specialty fruits, wine, and clothing growing by 7.1%, 28.9%, and 6.1%, respectively, effectively meeting the diversified domestic consumer demand.
In terms of supply, China is currently accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, and the trend of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is very obvious, and innovation has made Chinese manufacturing more widely favored. From the perspective of high-end, Chinese manufacturing shows strong strength. For example, recently, China exported the world's largest production and storage and offloading oil platform, with a unit price exceeding ten billion yuan. Calculated by displacement, it is equivalent to the displacement of five aircraft carriers, which represents the highest level of global offshore equipment. From the perspective of intelligence, a large number of intelligent home appliances, such as intelligent sweeping robots that can sweep, wash, and drag in one go, and fully automatic coffee machines that can adjust more than ten flavors by themselves, are popular with overseas customers. In the first three quarters, the export of household appliances grew by 15.5%. From the perspective of greening, China's new energy industry has effectively connected with the global green development trend, and the export of wind turbine groups and electric vehicles grew by 73.9% and 22%, respectively.Export growth slows down in September, a normal short-term data fluctuation
"In September, China's exports amounted to 2.17 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6%, which indicates a slowdown in growth rate but is considered a normal short-term data fluctuation, mainly influenced by some short-term incidental factors," said Lu Dalian, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department.
Firstly, there is a certain relationship with extreme weather. Two typhoons landed in the Yangtze River Delta region in September, and after the typhoons, the scheduling of fleets tends to be postponed, leading to a delay in exports. Secondly, the global shipping congestion, shortage of containers, and the negotiation expectations of the contract expiration of dockworkers on the East Coast of the United States have affected the shipping and logistics rhythm of enterprises. In addition, the export scale base in September last year was relatively high, which also restricted the year-on-year growth rate in September this year.
Lu Dalian said that according to preliminary calculations based on the latest data released by various economies, China's overall exports have a stable and rising share in the global market, and exports still have strong resilience. A recent survey of more than 800 major export enterprises showed that 69% of the enterprises reported that exports in the fourth quarter were flat or increased.
The data also shows that since July, China's import scale has expanded month by month, with September being the highest point of the year, with a month-on-month increase of 2%. In September, the import volumes of coal, natural gas, and integrated circuits increased by 13%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, reflecting the continuous recovery of domestic demand.
Regarding the next trend, Wang Lingjun analyzed that the current external environment is becoming more complex and severe. The latest report from the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is lower than the average level of the first 20 years of this century. In addition, some countries frequently take trade restrictive measures against China's products, and some fluctuations have also occurred in major domestic economic indicators such as industry, investment, and consumption, which also bring certain pressure to the development of foreign trade. However, the basic situation of China's economic development has not changed, and the favorable conditions such as large market potential and strong economic resilience have not changed. Recently, various departments and regions are accelerating the comprehensive implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, actively introducing a package of incremental policies, and supporting the healthy development of the real economy and business entities. "With the joint efforts of policies, China's economy will continue to stabilize and improve, and we have the conditions and confidence to achieve the goal of improving the quality and stabilizing the quantity of foreign trade throughout the year," Wang Lingjun said.