Israel will avoid striking Iran's energy and nuclear facilities

October 15th International Gold Market Trend AnalysisI. Analysis and Summary of Yesterday's MarketThe international gold market opened at 2655 yesterday and closed slightly lower at 2648. The main for...

October 15th International Gold Market Trend Analysis

I. Analysis and Summary of Yesterday's Market

The international gold market opened at 2655 yesterday and closed slightly lower at 2648. The main force's upward push yesterday was quite strong, with a direct increase of twenty-three points from the morning to the afternoon. Fortunately, the resistance at seventy did not break through successfully; otherwise, we would have to look at new high prices again. The reason for the recent rise in international gold market prices is certainly due to geopolitical situations, but not for the most part. In fact, it has been evident since the CPI data was announced last week that the increase was indeed abnormal. Therefore, we should just follow the trend for trading now. A total of three trades were made yesterday. The first trade was the high position we mentioned in our article, which was directly pulled to a stop loss by the main force without any hesitation; the second trade was a short position at a higher point of sixty-eight, as I was really afraid of missing the reversal and directly entered at sixty-six; the third trade was a long position in the evening, trying to catch a small rebound in the downward trend, but unfortunately, the position was closed a bit too early.

So, how should we operate today? Please listen to my analysis below:

II. News and Current Affairs Sharing

On October 15th, according to a report by The Washington Post, two informed officials revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed to the Biden administration in a call that he plans to strike Iran's military facilities, not oil or nuclear facilities. This implies that Israel will take a more limited counterattack to prevent the outbreak of a full-scale "war". This is the first call between Biden and Netanyahu after months of tense relations. Informed officials said that Israel's retaliatory actions will be adjusted to avoid giving the impression of "political interference in the US election". This indicates that Netanyahu understands that the scope of Israel's attack could reshape the presidential campaign landscape. Affected by this news, international oil prices fell by $2, with the decline once expanding to 4.5%.

Friends who trade crude oil may have observed that around 4:30 this morning, the crude oil market has already dropped by twenty to thirty points. Although such a decline is common during this period, this time it is a justified drop. Will international gold also decline? We should be able to see the result during the US market hours tonight. North Korea's reaction to the South Korean drone incident was very intense. Kim Jong-un clarified the hardline military and political stance of the North Korean party and government at yesterday's national defense and security meeting. Therefore, the risk-aversion sentiment in the market really cannot be easily dispersed. Whether it is the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, North Korea-South Korea, or even our South China Sea region, the situation is extremely severe.

III. Today's International Gold Market Trend AnalysisToday's international gold market outlook: In fact, the market trend from yesterday to now has been a downward trend. At this time, the international gold market shows a double-top bearish structure. It can be observed that the first attempt of the current double-top structure to break down has not been successful. Fortunately, it has subsequently moved towards a more rectangular consolidation, which gives the international gold market a second chance to break down. The first thing we need to do today is to place a break-down short position.

Next, let's look at the indicator analysis: The recent increase in trading volume is indicating the resistance of the current bullish forces. I believe everyone has an idea about the strength of the bulls in the past two days. The long positions we attempted last night were also at this critical position. In the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines are infinitely close to the zero axis, showing some signs of breaking down. The main point is that the current trend of the fast and slow lines is downward, providing convenient conditions for a downward break. There is no need to worry too much about the reduction of the negative value area momentum column, which corresponds to the rebound phenomenon at the price support level.

In the RSI indicator, although the supply and demand curve is near the middle value of fifty, a closer look reveals a downward trend, which is more conducive to the downward range. Therefore, our strategy for today is:

International gold short position at 2646.5 with a target of 2632 and a stop-loss point at 2652.5.